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NEW FACES OF ASEAN PART 2
By Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana
Welcome to Issue 11 of TrendNovation – a monthly newsletter devoted to discussion of long-term social, technological and political trends in Southeast Asia. Issue 10 of TrendNovation contemplated diverse trends or movements which are already giving a new face to ASEAN.
We continue this theme in the current issue. In the first article ‘ASEAN’s Relevance Amidst Changing Paradigms’, Suranand Vejjajiva challenges the concept of regional identity as a fundamental driver of an united ASEAN community. He points to the faster pace and unstoppable rise of ‘global citizenship’ and asks whether, at the beginning of the ‘Asia-Pacific Century’, ASEAN and its members can generate the unity of purpose and policy cohesion it will need if its poorest people are to reap any of the benefits of the AEC windfall?
Continuing with this theme, ‘Unifying ASEAN & the Rise of the Sub Mekong Region – Revisiting Regional Foresight’, by Dr. Pun-Arj Chairatana asks how the ASEAN Summits will bring benefits to ordinary people through regional integration over the next decade. The article explores a future based on Thailand’s 2019 ASEAN scenario and shares the author’s views on a new geo-political alignment and the prospects for systemic change towards European Union-style governance for ASEAN. The article concludes with a prediction of the economic rise of the GMS as the ‘Emerald Triangle’, along with the return of Myanmar as a leading rice exporter by 2020.
Jorge Carrillo Rodriguez, in his contribution ‘Southeast Asia: Contemporary Multi-National Nations’, offers a new perspective on labor mobility and diaspora in the region, and predicts that the rapid increase in net labor mobility, as well as a rise in mobility of more skilled and educated members of the workforce, will transform most nations in the region into melting pots of various nationalities. With labor migration set to swell over the coming decade, ASEAN’s hitherto tentative moves to establish mutual recognition and labor rights among its members are to be broadly welcomed; the logical progression– mandatory region-wide social safety nets to protect the migrant underclass– will represent a major test of ASEAN’s resolve to reduce poverty and inequity within all member states.
TrendNovation this month interviews Dr. Karndee Leopairote, Assistant Professor of Industrial and Operations Management at Thammasat Business School, Thailand, Advisor to the Deputy Minister of Commerce, member of Thailand Competitiveness Committee, NESDB, and a team member of the Advisor to the Prime Minister on the national project and campaign on building the creative economy.
And finally, in the Trend Tools section, Sadudee Vongkiattikachorn considers another forecasting technique: technology sequence analysis – a powerful forecasting tool for developing and validating technology paths.